If you are a growth investor, cloud data AI company, Snowflake (SNOW) has massive revenue and massive revenue growth. However, the share price has fallen from extreme highs (in 2021) so that its recent 33%+ pop in share price (following strong quarterly earnings) still leaves a lot to be desired. In this brief note, we review the company’s incredible revenue growth, earnings (still very negative net income), valuation and share dilution. We conclude with our strong opinion on investing.
Aspen Aerogels: High Growth, Shares Down 50% Since August
Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) recent sell-off (shares down 50% since August) provides a tempting buying opportunity for long-term growth investors. But there are a few things investors need to consider. For starters, investors were disappointed with Q3 results, in large part because the company reported a $13.0 million net loss, which included a $27.5 million one-time charge from the redemption of the company's convertible note (without the one-time charge, net income was $14.5 million, a $27.4 million YoY improvement). Additionally…
SoFi's Big Rally (+90% in the last 6 months)
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) shares are unsurprisingly up significantly post-election considering the new White House and Congress will be less friendly to the idea of student loan forgiveness (SoFi private loans didn’t qualify), but also as the company announced record beating quarterly performance at the end of October.
Albemarle: Lithium Supply Cycle
This lithium miner (with a strong tie in to electric vehicle batteries) has gone from “loved” (at over $300 per share in 2022) to “hated” (now trading at around $100). But what many investors may not fully appreciate is the massive lithium supply cycle swing, which now places Albemarle in an interesting position going forward. In this report, we review the business, the lithium supply cycle, current market dynamics and risks. We conclude with our strong opinion on investing.
Eli Lilly: The Bull Case is Compelling
Despite the recent “dip” (shares are trading 20% below recent all time highs), Eli Lilly remains a very attractive company and compelling investment opportunity (e.g. blockbuster weight-loss drugs, wide moat, massive growth, attractive valuation). In this report, we share the bull case (plus a few bear case arguments, for balance). Let’s get into it.
AI-Powered Marketing Software Stock: Disruptive Growth
The Artificial intelligence revolution is still just getting started, and some industries are set to benefit more than others. For example, the AI-powered marketing software company we review in this report has a lot of momentum right now, including rapidly rising revnues, a large market opportunity, competitive advantages, a compelling new mobile solution, healthy financials, solid leadership and new tailwinds from lower interest rates. After reviewing the company, including opportunities and risks, we conclude with our strong opinion on investing.
New Purchase: Disciplined Growth Portfolio
Quick Note: We have added back shares of this “fallen angel” AI stock mainly because the risk-reward and valuation metrics appear very compelling, despite high uncertainty and high short sales. The share price could get worse before it gets better, but if you like to buy profitable high-growth businesses with a long runway for growth, this one is compelling.
Thermal Barriers Company: Growth Accelerating on Government Regs, OEM Wins
Nvidia: Too Much, Too High
If you are like just about every single person I talk to, you own shares of Nvidia. And you probably love to tell your story of how you got in early, or how you should have bought more. But what about Nvidia's valuation? And what about your "position sizing" of Nvidia within your aggregate investment portfolio? After reviewing Nvidia's business, growth trajectory and risks, we discuss its current valuation and prudent position sizing within your personal investment portfolio. We conclude with our strong opinion about owning Nvidia shares ahead of the upcoming earnings announcement.
Earnings Note: Mercado Libre En Fuego
Earnings Note: Paylocity
Quick Note: Paylocity (PCTY) beat earnings and revenue expectations, and the shares are up. However, Paylocity shares have been so beaten up for so long (they’re still down ~50% from the 2021 high, thanks in large part to its focus on small-and-mid-sized businesses as customers) that some people haven’t noticed the fundamentals have never stopped improving.
Earnings Note: Meta Platforms
Quick Note: ServiceNow Earnings Update
Quick Note: Vertiv Earnings Update
Quick Note: Alphabet Earnings
Quick Note: NXP Semiconductors Earnings Note
Enovix: Despite Risks, Big Upside
As smart phone energy demands grow (especially with the proliferation of AI apps), Enovix is working to scale its disruptive battery architecture to improve efficiency and capacity. And the company’s total addressable market (“TAM”) is enormous, expanding beyond just smart phones and into wide-ranging Internet of Things (“IoT”) devices and electric vehicles. In this report we review the Enovix solution, TAM, progress, valuation and risks. We conclude with our strong opinion on investing.
Nvidia: Despite Red Flags, It’s Going Much Higher
Nvidia is the dominant seminconductor leader powering explosive megatrend growth in the great cloud migration and now artificial intelligence. And these truly massive megatrends are not coming to an end anytime soon. However, there are multiple glaring “red flags” for Nvidia. In this report, we review the business, growth, market size, current valuation, moat and then four massive red flags investors need to consider. We conclude with our strong opinion on investing.
Nvidia: How Much to Hold, Sell
Nvidia is a once-in-a-generation stock (it’s up +24,000% in the last 10 years and +207,000% since going public). And if you’re like a lot of people, you’re sitting on massive gains and a relatively large position. If you own the shares in an IRA then capital gains tax is not an issue, but position size may be. In this quick note, we share some thoughts on how much Nvidia you should hold, how much you should sell, and why (i.e. growth opportunities, taxes and risks).
Amazon: Ranking "The Magnificent 7" (Midyear Update)
As you can see in the table below, “The Magnificent 7” mega-cap stocks have posted incredible 10-year returns. However, there have recently been some big changes in the market (e.g. interest rate expectations) and to these seven businesses in particular (e.g. maturation, dividends, AI and more). In this report, we provide an update to our January rankings of the Magnificent 7 stocks, with a special focus on Amazon (AMZN) (including its business, four big growth drivers, valuation and risks). We conclude with our strong opinion on investing in Amazon (and each of the Magnificent 7) for the remainder of this year (and beyond).