We continue to own shares of this disruptive specialty chemicals company (thermal barrier materials) as growth continues to accelerate courtesy of government regulations forcing electric vehicle growth.
Nvidia: Too Much, Too High
If you are like just about every single person I talk to, you own shares of Nvidia. And you probably love to tell your story of how you got in early, or how you should have bought more. But what about Nvidia's valuation? And what about your "position sizing" of Nvidia within your aggregate investment portfolio? After reviewing Nvidia's business, growth trajectory and risks, we discuss its current valuation and prudent position sizing within your personal investment portfolio. We conclude with our strong opinion about owning Nvidia shares ahead of the upcoming earnings announcement.
Earnings Note: Mercado Libre En Fuego
Earnings Note: Paylocity
Quick Note: Paylocity (PCTY) beat earnings and revenue expectations, and the shares are up. However, Paylocity shares have been so beaten up for so long (they’re still down ~50% from the 2021 high, thanks in large part to its focus on small-and-mid-sized businesses as customers) that some people haven’t noticed the fundamentals have never stopped improving.
Earnings Note: Meta Platforms
Quick Note: ServiceNow Earnings Update
Quick Note: Vertiv Earnings Update
Quick Note: Alphabet Earnings
Quick Note: NXP Semiconductors Earnings Note
Enovix: Despite Risks, Big Upside
As smart phone energy demands grow (especially with the proliferation of AI apps), Enovix is working to scale its disruptive battery architecture to improve efficiency and capacity. And the company’s total addressable market (“TAM”) is enormous, expanding beyond just smart phones and into wide-ranging Internet of Things (“IoT”) devices and electric vehicles. In this report we review the Enovix solution, TAM, progress, valuation and risks. We conclude with our strong opinion on investing.
Nvidia: Despite Red Flags, It’s Going Much Higher
Nvidia is the dominant seminconductor leader powering explosive megatrend growth in the great cloud migration and now artificial intelligence. And these truly massive megatrends are not coming to an end anytime soon. However, there are multiple glaring “red flags” for Nvidia. In this report, we review the business, growth, market size, current valuation, moat and then four massive red flags investors need to consider. We conclude with our strong opinion on investing.
Nvidia: How Much to Hold, Sell
Nvidia is a once-in-a-generation stock (it’s up +24,000% in the last 10 years and +207,000% since going public). And if you’re like a lot of people, you’re sitting on massive gains and a relatively large position. If you own the shares in an IRA then capital gains tax is not an issue, but position size may be. In this quick note, we share some thoughts on how much Nvidia you should hold, how much you should sell, and why (i.e. growth opportunities, taxes and risks).
Amazon: Ranking "The Magnificent 7" (Midyear Update)
As you can see in the table below, “The Magnificent 7” mega-cap stocks have posted incredible 10-year returns. However, there have recently been some big changes in the market (e.g. interest rate expectations) and to these seven businesses in particular (e.g. maturation, dividends, AI and more). In this report, we provide an update to our January rankings of the Magnificent 7 stocks, with a special focus on Amazon (AMZN) (including its business, four big growth drivers, valuation and risks). We conclude with our strong opinion on investing in Amazon (and each of the Magnificent 7) for the remainder of this year (and beyond).
This Payment Processing Software Company Looks Good
Snowflake: 20+ Top AI Stocks, Ranked
Fads come and go. Megatrends (such as urbanization and the internet) change the world. Certainly, megatrends can get ahead of themselves (there was an internet bubble in the early 2000s, and more recently China built entire cities expecting rapid pockets of urbanization that never happened). Some investors wonder if Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) is a fad, a megatend that has gotten ahead of itself, or still in its infancy. In this report, we address this question with a variety of data points (including comparative data on 20+ top AI stocks) and a special focus on big-data AI stock Snowflake (SNOW) (including its business, growth opportunity, valuation and risks). We conclude with our strong opinion on AI as a theme and Snowflake as an investment opportunity.
Alphabet, Big Risks: Bing AI, Apple DOJ, Meta-Like Spending
Alphabet (GOOGL) shares are up a measly 7.9% this year, and up 10.8% over the last two-years. That may not sound too bad, but compared to other mega-caps like Microsoft (MSFT) (+14.2% ytd, +45.9% 2yr) and Meta Platforms (META) (+44.1% ytd +141.2% 2yr), Alphabet has been lackluster (and some investors worry it’s increasingly going the way of Apple (AAPL) (-10.4% ytd). In this report, we review Alphabet’s business, its big risks (e.g. AI threats, challenges from being enormous, high spending) and its current valuation. We conclude with our strong opinion on investing.
Lithium Stock: The Yin to Nvidia's Yang, Big Upside Ahead
Chip stocks (such as Nvidia) are notoriously cyclical (50% to 80% declines are not uncommon). Somewhat similarly, the materials stock (lithium) we review in this report is likely near the bottom of an epic cyclical decline of its own (shares are down 66%). And like Nvidia, this materials stock is a leading beneficiary of another big secular trend (rather than AI, it benefits from technological advances in batteries). In this report, we review the materials stock (including it business, market opportunity, valuation and risks) and then conclude with a comparison of its massive price appreciation potential as compared to Nvidia’s with regards to where each one sits in its own massive secular market trend.
Palantir: A Long-Term Play on Big Data and AI, But at What Price?
Palantir provides sophisticated software platforms for data analysis, leveraging advanced AI and machine learning techniques. Its software effortlessly integrates structured data like spreadsheets and unstructured data like images and social media posts into a single centralized database, enabling visualization and analysis of all information. The company is further leveraging its AI expertise with AIP, a novel platform that introduces support for large language models and generative AI to its current offerings. In this report, we analyze Palantir’s business model, its market opportunity, financials, valuation, risks, and then conclude with our opinion on investing.
Nvidia: 40 Top Chip Stocks (Ranked by Value)
With Nvidia shares now up more than 45% this year (and up over 1,870% in the last 5 years) some investors are again wondering if the stock is overpriced. On one hand, the semiconductor industry is notoriously cyclical, and big price pullbacks (60% to 80%) are not uncommon. On the other hand, Nvidia benefits enormously from two megatrends (artificial intelligence (“AI”) and the great cloud migration/ digitization), and the share price gains may still just be getting started. In this report, we take a closer look at Nvidia’s current valuation versus 40 other top chip stocks, share our views on what sets it apart, and then conclude with our strong opinion on investing.
AI-Powered Marketing Software Stock: Disruptive Growth
The company we review in this report is a leading omnichannel data-driven cloud platform offering consumer intelligence and marketing automation software to enterprises. The company enables its clients to engage consumers across various channels like email, social media, web, chat, Connected TV, and video. In this report, we analyze the company’s business model, its market opportunity, financials, valuation and risks, and then conclude with our opinion on whether the shares offer an attractive balance between risks and rewards.