Quick Note

Google Earnings Note

Quick Note: Google released earnings after the close. Here are two quick observations: (1) Cloud is smaller than Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure, and a smaller part of Google's business, but still Growing Fast! (see table). (2) Google is Rapidly Accelerating spending on Artificial Intelligence (currently categorized in "Unallocated Corporate Costs") (see table 2).

New Purchase: Disciplined Growth Portfolio Update

This is a quick note to let readers know we’ve added a new position to the Disciplined Growth Portfolio (it’s a business benefiting from two big secular trends: (1) The Great Cloud Migration and AI, and (2) Increasing Technology in the Automotive Industry). And we have also updated the Disciplined Growth Portfolio Tracker Sheet for July (there have been a few rebalances).

*New Trade: Sold Owl Rock (Now Blue Owl), Purchased This BDC Instead, 11.2% Yield

This is a quick note to let readers know we have placed a new trade in our Blue Harbinger High Income NOW and Income Equity portfolios. Specifically, we have sold 100% of our position in Owl Rock Capital (ORCC) (recently renamed Blue Owl, (OBDC)) and replaced it with this (see below) highly attractive 11.2% yield BDC instead. We’ll be updating our portfolio tracker sheets shortly, but wanted to share this information with readers right away.

Ares Commercial Real Estate: It Can Still Get Much Worse for this 16.1% Yield

Members Mailbag: We received an inquiry from a member this week about ACRE (expected to announce earnings on Tues May 2nd). We believe that some investors view this particular mortgage REIT (ACRE) as an attractive contrarian opportunity, considering the shares are down big (-40% over the last year), the yield has mathematically grown to a tempting 16.1%, and it has a well known brand name attached to it (Ares). However, the commercial real estate market is terrible. We share comparative data points on over 100 big-dividend REITs (sorted by sub-industry), dig into some important details on ACRE, and then conclude with our opinion on investing.

Owl Rock: 40 Big-Yield BDCs, Compared

With BDC earnings season set to kick off this week (starting with Ares Capital on Tuesday pre-market), we’ll also be watching Owl Rock closely (set to announce two weeks later). One key metric to watch will be book value as the economy heads towards recession and write-downs could start to more significantly detract from the benefits of rising interest rates. This quick note shares data on 40 big-yield BDC, and digs into Owl Rock in more detail.

Adobe (ADBE) Earnings Note

This highly-profitable “creative” software company announced powerful revenue and operating income on Wednesday after the close (the shares are up significantly Thursday), and it’s well-positioned to keep driving profitable growth for the decade ahead. Its products benefit from strong moats (high switching costs), increasing subscription revenue and lots of cash flow to fund growth and buy back shares. This is a business that is positioned to weather the economic cycle well, and it trades at very reasonable valuation multiples, especially considering profit margins and revenue growth guidance both remain robust.

SOFI: Fear Creates Opportunity

SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is a financial services company, focused mainly on lending (see Income Statement operating segments below). And the shares are currently getting pummeled for one main reason: Fear. Specifically, fear of the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on student loan forgiveness and fear of banks defaulting (i.e. contagion to the financial system from the recent run on Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB)). In this note, we quickly review SOFI’s business and valuation, and then conclude with our strong opinion on investing (i.e. is the recent sell off an opportunity or a warning).