Quick Note: Shares of Enphase are now down -45% year-to-date after today's earnings announcement (weak guidance, as explained in the note below). Shares of Enphase are quickly moving into HATED territory.
Quick Note: Highly Rated Software Stocks
Google Earnings Note
Quick Note: Google released earnings after the close. Here are two quick observations: (1) Cloud is smaller than Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure, and a smaller part of Google's business, but still Growing Fast! (see table). (2) Google is Rapidly Accelerating spending on Artificial Intelligence (currently categorized in "Unallocated Corporate Costs") (see table 2).
Quick Note: Software Stocks (High Growth Plus a "Moat")
Quick Note: Sharing 100+ Big-Yield BDCs, CEFs
New Purchase: Disciplined Growth Portfolio Update
This is a quick note to let readers know we’ve added a new position to the Disciplined Growth Portfolio (it’s a business benefiting from two big secular trends: (1) The Great Cloud Migration and AI, and (2) Increasing Technology in the Automotive Industry). And we have also updated the Disciplined Growth Portfolio Tracker Sheet for July (there have been a few rebalances).
*New Trade: Sold Owl Rock (Now Blue Owl), Purchased This BDC Instead, 11.2% Yield
This is a quick note to let readers know we have placed a new trade in our Blue Harbinger High Income NOW and Income Equity portfolios. Specifically, we have sold 100% of our position in Owl Rock Capital (ORCC) (recently renamed Blue Owl, (OBDC)) and replaced it with this (see below) highly attractive 11.2% yield BDC instead. We’ll be updating our portfolio tracker sheets shortly, but wanted to share this information with readers right away.
7 Big-Yield CEF Questions (I Always Ask Myself) To Drive Healthy Income
4 Ingredients To “Beat The Market” Consistently (And How I Track My Success On A Daily Basis)
Snowflake (SNOW) Quick Note
In this quick note, we provide some brief updated data and valuation metrics for Snowflake (SNOW), as well as our thoughts on the market opportunity, health of the business and risks. This one was so popular when it IPO’d during the pandemic bubble in late 2020, and the shares have now fallen so hard.
Disciplined Growth Portfolio Updated
Quick Note: 25 Top Revenue Growth Stocks
Ares Commercial Real Estate: It Can Still Get Much Worse for this 16.1% Yield
Members Mailbag: We received an inquiry from a member this week about ACRE (expected to announce earnings on Tues May 2nd). We believe that some investors view this particular mortgage REIT (ACRE) as an attractive contrarian opportunity, considering the shares are down big (-40% over the last year), the yield has mathematically grown to a tempting 16.1%, and it has a well known brand name attached to it (Ares). However, the commercial real estate market is terrible. We share comparative data points on over 100 big-dividend REITs (sorted by sub-industry), dig into some important details on ACRE, and then conclude with our opinion on investing.
Owl Rock: 40 Big-Yield BDCs, Compared
With BDC earnings season set to kick off this week (starting with Ares Capital on Tuesday pre-market), we’ll also be watching Owl Rock closely (set to announce two weeks later). One key metric to watch will be book value as the economy heads towards recession and write-downs could start to more significantly detract from the benefits of rising interest rates. This quick note shares data on 40 big-yield BDC, and digs into Owl Rock in more detail.
Members Mailbag: Small & Micro Cap CEFs (RVT, RMT)
Top 20 S&P 500 Stocks: YTD and Last 10 Years
Bond CEFs: Prices, Premiums and Interest Rates
A quick note to share some updated data and commentary on a handful of popular big-yield bond CEFs from PIMCO and BlackRock. This note may be of particular interest to those following our High Income NOW portfolio. For starters, here is a look at the latest movement in premiums and discounts (versus NAV).
100 High-Growth Stocks: Contrarian Interest Rising
It’s no secret growth got slaughtered (as the pandemic bubble burst), and TONS of Fed balance sheet unwinding remains (see chart), but rate hikes are slowing (ending?), and valuation multiples much lower on high growth stocks. Here is data on 100 top growth stocks with at least 20% revenue growth (this year and next).
Adobe (ADBE) Earnings Note
This highly-profitable “creative” software company announced powerful revenue and operating income on Wednesday after the close (the shares are up significantly Thursday), and it’s well-positioned to keep driving profitable growth for the decade ahead. Its products benefit from strong moats (high switching costs), increasing subscription revenue and lots of cash flow to fund growth and buy back shares. This is a business that is positioned to weather the economic cycle well, and it trades at very reasonable valuation multiples, especially considering profit margins and revenue growth guidance both remain robust.
SOFI: Fear Creates Opportunity
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is a financial services company, focused mainly on lending (see Income Statement operating segments below). And the shares are currently getting pummeled for one main reason: Fear. Specifically, fear of the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on student loan forgiveness and fear of banks defaulting (i.e. contagion to the financial system from the recent run on Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB)). In this note, we quickly review SOFI’s business and valuation, and then conclude with our strong opinion on investing (i.e. is the recent sell off an opportunity or a warning).