Quick Note: Meta announced strong quarterly results (beating expectations on earnings and revenues) as its family of apps (and innovation) continues to grow. The shares were up signficantly. However…
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Enovix: Despite Risks, Big Upside
As smart phone energy demands grow (especially with the proliferation of AI apps), Enovix is working to scale its disruptive battery architecture to improve efficiency and capacity. And the company’s total addressable market (“TAM”) is enormous, expanding beyond just smart phones and into wide-ranging Internet of Things (“IoT”) devices and electric vehicles. In this report we review the Enovix solution, TAM, progress, valuation and risks. We conclude with our strong opinion on investing.
Nvidia: Despite Red Flags, It’s Going Much Higher
Nvidia is the dominant seminconductor leader powering explosive megatrend growth in the great cloud migration and now artificial intelligence. And these truly massive megatrends are not coming to an end anytime soon. However, there are multiple glaring “red flags” for Nvidia. In this report, we review the business, growth, market size, current valuation, moat and then four massive red flags investors need to consider. We conclude with our strong opinion on investing.
Nvidia: How Much to Hold, Sell
Nvidia is a once-in-a-generation stock (it’s up +24,000% in the last 10 years and +207,000% since going public). And if you’re like a lot of people, you’re sitting on massive gains and a relatively large position. If you own the shares in an IRA then capital gains tax is not an issue, but position size may be. In this quick note, we share some thoughts on how much Nvidia you should hold, how much you should sell, and why (i.e. growth opportunities, taxes and risks).
Amazon: Ranking "The Magnificent 7" (Midyear Update)
As you can see in the table below, “The Magnificent 7” mega-cap stocks have posted incredible 10-year returns. However, there have recently been some big changes in the market (e.g. interest rate expectations) and to these seven businesses in particular (e.g. maturation, dividends, AI and more). In this report, we provide an update to our January rankings of the Magnificent 7 stocks, with a special focus on Amazon (AMZN) (including its business, four big growth drivers, valuation and risks). We conclude with our strong opinion on investing in Amazon (and each of the Magnificent 7) for the remainder of this year (and beyond).
This Payment Processing Software Company Looks Good
Snowflake: 20+ Top AI Stocks, Ranked
Fads come and go. Megatrends (such as urbanization and the internet) change the world. Certainly, megatrends can get ahead of themselves (there was an internet bubble in the early 2000s, and more recently China built entire cities expecting rapid pockets of urbanization that never happened). Some investors wonder if Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) is a fad, a megatend that has gotten ahead of itself, or still in its infancy. In this report, we address this question with a variety of data points (including comparative data on 20+ top AI stocks) and a special focus on big-data AI stock Snowflake (SNOW) (including its business, growth opportunity, valuation and risks). We conclude with our strong opinion on AI as a theme and Snowflake as an investment opportunity.
Alphabet, Big Risks: Bing AI, Apple DOJ, Meta-Like Spending
Alphabet (GOOGL) shares are up a measly 7.9% this year, and up 10.8% over the last two-years. That may not sound too bad, but compared to other mega-caps like Microsoft (MSFT) (+14.2% ytd, +45.9% 2yr) and Meta Platforms (META) (+44.1% ytd +141.2% 2yr), Alphabet has been lackluster (and some investors worry it’s increasingly going the way of Apple (AAPL) (-10.4% ytd). In this report, we review Alphabet’s business, its big risks (e.g. AI threats, challenges from being enormous, high spending) and its current valuation. We conclude with our strong opinion on investing.
Lithium Stock: The Yin to Nvidia's Yang, Big Upside Ahead
Chip stocks (such as Nvidia) are notoriously cyclical (50% to 80% declines are not uncommon). Somewhat similarly, the materials stock (lithium) we review in this report is likely near the bottom of an epic cyclical decline of its own (shares are down 66%). And like Nvidia, this materials stock is a leading beneficiary of another big secular trend (rather than AI, it benefits from technological advances in batteries). In this report, we review the materials stock (including it business, market opportunity, valuation and risks) and then conclude with a comparison of its massive price appreciation potential as compared to Nvidia’s with regards to where each one sits in its own massive secular market trend.
Palantir: A Long-Term Play on Big Data and AI, But at What Price?
Palantir provides sophisticated software platforms for data analysis, leveraging advanced AI and machine learning techniques. Its software effortlessly integrates structured data like spreadsheets and unstructured data like images and social media posts into a single centralized database, enabling visualization and analysis of all information. The company is further leveraging its AI expertise with AIP, a novel platform that introduces support for large language models and generative AI to its current offerings. In this report, we analyze Palantir’s business model, its market opportunity, financials, valuation, risks, and then conclude with our opinion on investing.
Nvidia: 40 Top Chip Stocks (Ranked by Value)
With Nvidia shares now up more than 45% this year (and up over 1,870% in the last 5 years) some investors are again wondering if the stock is overpriced. On one hand, the semiconductor industry is notoriously cyclical, and big price pullbacks (60% to 80%) are not uncommon. On the other hand, Nvidia benefits enormously from two megatrends (artificial intelligence (“AI”) and the great cloud migration/ digitization), and the share price gains may still just be getting started. In this report, we take a closer look at Nvidia’s current valuation versus 40 other top chip stocks, share our views on what sets it apart, and then conclude with our strong opinion on investing.
AI-Powered Marketing Software Stock: Disruptive Growth
The company we review in this report is a leading omnichannel data-driven cloud platform offering consumer intelligence and marketing automation software to enterprises. The company enables its clients to engage consumers across various channels like email, social media, web, chat, Connected TV, and video. In this report, we analyze the company’s business model, its market opportunity, financials, valuation and risks, and then conclude with our opinion on whether the shares offer an attractive balance between risks and rewards.
Top Small Cap: Big Secular Growth, Automotive Semiconductors
In this report, we review a small cap company that specializes in providing semiconductor and software solutions for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), including light detection and ranging (LiDAR), connected cars, user experience, and electrification applications. The company's technologies serve as the foundational elements for both electric and autonomous vehicles, with a focus on enhancing in-cabin experiences and seamless connectivity to mobile platforms. In this report, we analyze the company’s business model, its market opportunity, financials, valuation, risks, and then finally conclude with our opinion on whether investing offers an attractive balance between risks and rewards.
Amazon: Ranking “The Magnificent 7” for 2024
2023 was largely a tale of two markets. The “S&P 493” (roughly two-thirds of the index, by market cap) was up 20.3% (on average), while the seven largest mega-cap stocks (i.e. the “Magnificent 7”) were up ~100%, on average (see table below). In this report, we rank each of the Magnificent 7 stocks for 2024, with a special focus on Amazon (including an update on its business, its four big growth opportunities, valuation and risks). We conclude with our stern opinion on investing in Amazon (and the Magnificent 7) in 2024, especially as compared to non-mega-cap growth stock opportunities.
Next Gen AI Data Center: Massive Disruptive Upside
The data center company we review in this report is the epitome of a high-risk / high-reward opportunity, and the odds appear tilted strongly towards high reward (based on the massive secular opportunities: mainly explosive growth in Artificial Intelligence, and to a lesser extent blockchain hosting). This isn’t the type of stock you bet the farm on, but it’s absolutely worth considering for an allocation within a prudently concentrated high-growth portfolio. In this report, we review the business, the opportunities, valuation and risks, and then conclude with an important takeaway.
Big EV Upside for this Tiny Specialty Chemicals Company
As inflation slows, the fed gets less hawkish and the market builds momentum heading into 2024, the shares of some high growth stocks remain depressed despite the fact that business is accelerating rapidly. The specialty chemicals company we review in this report has a healthy “energy industrials” business (servicing oil producers, refiners and the like), but it is the company’s tie in to electric vehicles (thermal barriers used in battery packs) that make the disruptive upside potential most compelling (for example, the shares have nearly 90% upside compared to the consensus Wall Street price target, and they’re rated “strong buy”). In this report, we review the business, the growth potential, the valuation and the risks, and then conclude with our strong opinion on investing.