We first purchased Shopify at ~$143 per share in August of 2018. It now trades at ~$333 per share. Not a bad return—until you realize the shares have fallen over 80% in the last 6 months! This report compares Shopify’s business fundamentals (including its business strategy, ongoing revenue growth and margins) to its current valuation, and then examines the question of whether Shopify CEO, Tobias Lütke, continues to imprudently push an easy-money, high-growth business strategy in an increasingly sober new market paradigm—now characterized by higher costs of capital and a starkly less friendly meme stock environment (yes—Shopify is a meme stock). We conclude with our opinion on who might want to invest—or if it’s simply time to sell and move on.

Although this company lags Amazon in global e-commerce sales, it is a rapidly growing ecommerce juggernaut in its own right, and its expanding list of highly valuable add on services is benefiting customers and the company itself. 2020 was obviously an aberration year, as e-commerce sales spiked due to the pandemic. But 2021 revenue growth is expected to be higher than pre-2020 years, and the large total addressable market opportunity gives the shares plenty of room to run. And although we expect volatility in the short-term, the recent price pullback provides some additional margin of safety for long-term investors. In this report, we review the business, growth prospects, valuation, risks and conclude with our opinion on investing.